The ceremony for the 69th edition of the Ballon d’Or, to be held at the Théâtre du Châtelet in Paris on September 22, could be historic for Portugal: for the second time in decades, there are three national players among the 30 nominees for the best player of the season award.
Portuguese players Vitinha, Nuno Mendes and João Neves, all from Paris Saint Germain (PSG), a team that has won almost all of the trophies it was set to win this year, are among the three dozen nominees for the Ballon d’Or 2025. However, they face huge competition from the likes of Ousmane Dembélé (absolute favorite), Lamine Yamal (Barcelona), Salah (Liverpool) and Raphinha (Barcelona).
Portugal’s golden hopes
Vitinha
Vitinha is the best positioned Portuguese in the bookmakers, with a probability of around 5.88% of winning (source: Aposta Legal), making him one of the top three or four favorites.
Much of this is due to his Champions League triumph, and it’s the Nations League that could strengthen his candidacy, when compared to the most talked-about name to win this year, his PSG colleague Ousmane Dembélé , who has almost twice as many goals and assists as any other nominee.
Nuno Mendes
The next figure is PSG full-back Nuno Mendes, considered one of the top 10 on this list, although his chances are only 1.59% (source: Aposta Legal), even though he has won every possible team title.
João Neves
The “boy” João Neves, who “populates” practically the entire PSG midfield, is further back on this list, with a 0.43% chance of winning. However, he is one of the biggest favorites for the Kopa Trophy, which recognizes the best young player in the world.
International competition
Striker Ousmane Dembélé is practically the winner of the 2025 Ballon d’Or, with an 81.74% chance of winning it, standing out for his impressive numbers in his team’s attack during the 2024-2025 season, and for the decisive role he played in the titles they won.
Barcelona’s still young player, Lamine Yamal, appears here as one of the main “rivals” to the French player, but the 19% probability will certainly not be enough.
Salah, Raphinha, Mbappé, Vinícius Jr. and Gyökeres, who moved to Arsenal this summer, also have a chance, but mathematically less.
Although the trophy seems destined for Dembélé, history tells us that Portugal’s strength on the big stage should never be underestimated.
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